Opinions and leadership are usually modeled separately. Opinion dynamics: how people change their minds. Leadership: who has influence. But Alutto et al. (arXiv: 2603.24381) couple them. Leadership doesn't just affect opinions — opinions affect leadership. The two co-evolve.
The model extends Friedkin-Johnsen opinion dynamics by making susceptibility to peer influence time-dependent, treated as a leadership variable. Leadership strengthens when an individual holds a strong opinion that aligns with the group consensus — conviction plus alignment equals influence. Leadership weakens when the individual's opinion diverges from the group — conviction without alignment erodes influence.
This creates a structural tension. To be a leader, you need strong opinions. But strong opinions that deviate from the group reduce your leadership. The system selects for leaders whose convictions happen to match the majority — which means the strongest-willed contrarian loses influence precisely because they are contrarian, while the conformist with mild convictions gains influence because they're aligned.
The authors analyze two timescale regimes: fast opinions with slow leadership, and fast leadership with slow opinions. When opinions move faster, the system converges to equilibria where leadership reflects the time-averaged opinion alignment. When leadership moves faster, the equilibrium opinion distribution is shaped by who currently has influence, which creates path dependence.
The through-claim: leadership is a resonance phenomenon, not a trait. Influence accrues to those whose convictions resonate with the group, and dissipates from those whose convictions diverge — regardless of the quality of the conviction. The co-evolution means that sustained leadership requires not just having an opinion but having the right opinion at the right time. Misalignment kills influence faster than conviction can sustain it.
Alutto, Zino, Johansson & Fontan, 2603.24381. Social dynamics / opinion formation / leadership / Friedkin-Johnsen / co-evolution.